This is Turov on Timing for Monday, August 14, 2006.
The SPX declined 5.07 points Friday to close at 1266.74 in almost a reversal of Thursday’s advance. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
For last week as a whole, TOT daily traders recommendations gained 31.77 cumulative SPX points, compared to a 12.62 point loss in the SPX. It was the 19th week out of the past 24 weeks in which the TOT daily traders recommendations were profitable, and it was the 20th week of the past 24 weeks in which the TOT daily traders recommendations outperformed the SPX.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8992.04 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 807.81 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.13 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain neutral.
The directional component of the daily model is quite bullish today, but the risk component is high enough to move the overall model into neutral. I like the long side of the market today, but with the risk component as high as it is – not to mention the strength in the overnight futures which is never taken into consideration, one way or the other, in calculating the daily model – we will officially stand aside today and wait for a better risk/reward opportunity. I do think it’s worthwhile to mention, however, that it’s a mathematical impossibility for the daily model to be bullish on Tuesday, so for those who want to go long today on their own, I certainly would not want to carry that long position overnight.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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