The SPX advanced 2.40 points Friday to close at 878.85. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 7501.91 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 419.92 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish.
The long term model remains neutral. By the narrowest of margins, the short term model has upticked from bearish to bullish. Repeating, the short term model is now bullish, meaning that the probability is that the next 5% move will be up.
The ability of the market to hold its own on Thursday and Friday was enough to make the daily model minimally bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 100% long at the market. Use a protective sell stop at SPX 870. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
From a practical perspective, the futures are up 11 points in Globex trading as I write this, and I’d be somewhat reluctant to be too aggressive. On the other hand, for reasons I described in detail in the October 2000 issue (duplicate copy on request), recommendations are always in terms of the cash index, and neither the cash index nor the model “knows” what the futures are doing.
Please note an interesting quirk here: If the market is up today, I don’t know what the daily model will be tomorrow. But if the market is down today (unless it’s a rout), there is a very high probability that the model will be bullish tomorrow! Rather counter-intuitive, but that’s the way it is, and I thought I’d share that information with you.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2003 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the publisher.