The SPX advanced 0.1 point Friday to close at 2091.58. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16559.30 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1632.65 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.14 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.14 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 19, 2016.) Having reached the 2100 level, the potential for additional SPX short term gains are diminished, but the Intermediate Term Model still remains bullish. The chances of a crash later this year are significant, but the near term does not look particularly dangerous.
The big news story Friday was Google’s significant earnings miss that was announced after the close on Thursday. GOOG’s decline was said to be the worst in three years. But the market did not collapse, and even the tech stocks sustained only relatively modest losses compared to what could have occurred. The odds favor a soft opening today followed by a soft recovery. Considering that Mondays have been the weakest day of the week (since September 30, 1993, cumulative Mondays in the SPX are down 18.71 points compared to a gain of a cumulative 1651.36 points on the other four days of the week) I see no compelling reason to try to be a hero here. Stand aside for now.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.