The SPX declined 3.07 points yesterday to close at 1997.65. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 14095.76 cumulative SPX points, compared
to a gain of 1538.72 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.16 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model
fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.16 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since
January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the
primary bear market is over, some years in the future (best guess: 2017 or 2018), at or below about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January
2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 2, 2014.) Description of current market: The current market can best be described as being bullish,
and despite an Intermediate Term Model reading that is bearish and forecasting the next 5% decline as being more likely to occur before the next 5% advance,
there is not yet any statistical indication that the bull market has reached its end.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 2, 2014.) The September monthly Turov on Timing has first page commentary about this Model. The
Intermediate Term Model is bearish, and the rally since August 8 is long in the tooth. While the SPX has modestly exceeded its previous high, IMHO, its
visit to the stratosphere is not likely to hold, and SPX 1900 (about 100 points down) is more likely to occur first than SPX 2100 (about 100 points up).
MarketWatch described yesterday morning’s action as follows: “The U.S. stock market rose early Thursday as the European Central Bank’s surprise interest-rate
cuts and new bond-buying program boosted global equities. The ECB’s action was seen as a positive because it shows the central bank is ready to counter
falling inflation in the eurozone.” But late in the session, the market gave back all of its gains and then some. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines,
and the late day action proved that that was a good place to be.
“Logically,” after a reversal like that, one would expect the market to be soft today. It may be, depending on currently unknowable news, but the last time
the market was “logical” was sometime during the Coolidge administration, I believe.
In any event, the daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1998.50 stop. If the SPX declines to 1994 before
reaching 1998.50, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 1996. And for each 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a
1% sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today (Friday).
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2014 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and
advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be
reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be
directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but
rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and
may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at
a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern.
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