This is Turov on Timing for Friday, September 29, 2006. Today is the 13th anniversary of the Turov on Timing service.
The SPX advanced 2.56 points yesterday to close at 1339.15. TOT daily traders went 400% long at SPX 1337.50 and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8935.28 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 880.22 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.15 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bearish.
The odds are that the market will advance in the early going and then sell off. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 400% long. From last night’s close, I want to risk 5 points to make an additional 5 points. The odds are about 60-40 that we’ll see 5 points to the upside before we see 5 points to the downside, and that’s worth the bet. TOT daily traders are advised to liquidate your position at SPX 1344.15 limit or SPX 1334.15 stop or at the market on the close, whichever of those three events occurs first.
Although, as the Stock Trader’s Almanac points out, the first trading day of October has been strong in recent years, my preliminary data says that the odds of Monday advancing are not particularly good, and that’s why I want to go into the weekend flat.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.