The SPX declined 7.64 points yesterday to close at 2500.60. TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2503.87 on Monday and took profits yesterday at SPX 2500.60. For the week so far, the SPX is up 0.37 points and TOT daily traders are up 5.34 points.
GOLD: Two weeks ago, after gold reached its 1350 objective, I recommended selling gold and going short. Yesterday, gold closed at 1292.03, a decline of 4% in a short period of time. That’s probably “it” for now. My gold model has now reversed to “buy” and a move to new 2017 highs before the end of the year is likely.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17483.48 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2041.67 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.56 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.56 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 13, 2017) The Intermediate Term model has remains neutral. I expect the market to have a severe selloff sometime relatively soon – but not yet.
The directional component of the daily model is neutral today, and the risk component is quite high. We will stand aside and not risk capital.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again before the start of Monday’s trading session.
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