Another superb day for the home team as the SPX advanced 21.49 points yesterday to close at 2147.26. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2126 and have carried the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17082.37 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1688.33 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.12 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.12 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 14, 2016.) On September 1, with the SPX around 2170, I wrote, “a decline down to about SPX 2110 would not surprise me. That is not a goal or an objective, but rather a reasonable reevaluation point.” The market sold down to 2119 on September 12 and then rallied big time to close at 2159. It then declined to 2120 on September 13. The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, and lower prices in the intermediate term are expected.
The news-neutral daily model is bullish today. However, for a variety of reasons, I’m not really comfortable on the long side today (and I never take a net position contrary to the daily model). TOT daily traders are 300% long from SPX 2126. Let’s lock in a 20 point profit (times 3 units) by raising the stop to SPX 2146. If not stopped out, sell the position on the close and go into the weekend flat.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s trading.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.