This is Turov on Timing for Friday, September 1, 2006.
The SPX declined 0.45 point yesterday to close at 1303.82. TOT daily traders went 400% long at SPX 1305 and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8926.96 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 844.89 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.57 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain neutral.
While the directional component of the daily model is bullish today, the risk component is at one of the highest levels of the year, and therefore is throwing the overall model into neutral mode. If we had no position, we would stand aside. However, we do have a 400% long position, carried overnight from yesterday. In light of the daily model reading, TOT daily traders are advised to raise the stop markedly to SPX 1303 stop, enabling us to exit on the first sign of weakness. On the upside, if the SPX should rise to 1310, raise your stop to SPX 1305, and for each additional 5 point advance, raise your stop by an equivalent 5 points. If not stopped out AND if the SPX is closing up on the day, carry your position over the weekend and into Tuesday. Otherwise liquidate your position on the close and go into the weekend flat.
Have a great holiday weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 96 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.