This is Turov on Timing for Friday, October 9, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 7.91 points yesterday to close at 1065.48. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session as I had recommend that since “there’s a decent chance that (the expected gap up opening) will be all of the day’s gain,” and that was indeed the case.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11141.22 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 606.55 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 18.37 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices in 2010 or 2011. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.
A very simple message today: The daily model is neutral today with there being a slight probability that the market will advance rather than decline, but being offset by there being a slightly greater downside expected value than upside expected value. With the weather still delightful in most of the country, it’s a great day to start a three day weekend, enjoying the significant profits we booked early in the week.
Enjoy the weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s session.
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