The SPX declined 15.21 points yesterday to close at 1678.66. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13478.20 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1219.73 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.05 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 28, 2013) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated October 4, 2013) The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. The odds are that the recent decline from the highs is about over, and the market will challenge those highs sooner rather than later. I expect the low of this decline to occur today.
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at the first sign of weakness; i.e. SPX 1678 stop. If the SPX advances to 1682 before declining to 1678, raise your entry sell stop to SPX 1680. And for each further 2 point advance, raise your entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points. If and when you go short, use a protective buy stop 10 points above your entry short level. In the other direction, if and when you have a 5 point profit in the trade, lower the stop to a breakeven. For reasons explained in the next paragraph, if still short as we approach the close, cover the short on the close and go into the weekend flat.
You may recall, I suffered from a kidney stone about three weeks ago. Without going into a lot of personal detail, that issue is unresolved, and I will be undergoing a surgical procedure today, leaving the office at 2:00 p.m., Eastern time. I will be under general anesthesia until after the market closes. Therefore, (1) There will be no intraday messages today, (2) I want to “officially” go into cash on the close since I will not be able to monitor the market after 2:00, (3) All Turov Investment Group Inc. managed accounts will be put into the money market fund as of the close today, for the same reason. HOWEVER, please note that if the SPX is down today, as expected, the daily model for Monday has an 80% probability of being bullish; I just can’t do anything about it since if bullish news comes out of Washington from 2:00 to 4:00 today and the market advances, it could take the wind out of Monday’s expected advance, and positioning long with two hours left to go in today’s trading session simply would be foolish. However, readers may use the preceding information as they choose.
Have a better weekend than me (that will be easy!), thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2013 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.