This is Turov on Timing for Friday, October 26, 2007.
The SPX declined 1.48 points yesterday to close at 1514.40. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and missed absolutely nothing.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 12 of the past 16 weeks, many of those by wide margins, but are somewhat behind the eight ball so far this week.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10088.94 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1055.47 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.56 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
IMPORTANT: It was only two weeks ago that I said, with the SPX at 1562, “Despite the SPX being only 38 points away from 1600 versus 62 points away from 1500, I think we will re-visit 1500 before seeing 1600.” That, of course has happened, and when it did, it was unclear how much below 1500 we would go. Well, we went down to 1490 – and then it stopped like there was granite underneath it. Since then, the market has acted very well, stabilizing, absorbing selling, and rallying each afternoon after fighting off selling pressure early in the day. Component indicators of the intermediate model have improved dramatically – somewhat to my surprise, I might add – and although I would have liked to see the market sell off to lower levels and really get rid of all the excess optimism, it has not done so. Indeed, component indicators have improved so much that the intermediate term model, which so perfectly anticipated the 72 point decline from SPX 1562 to 1490, has now upticked from bearish to bullish. REPEATING, THE INTERMEDIATE TERM MODEL IS NOW BULLISH. I still believe November could get nasty, but there is simply no indicator support to that belief at the present time. I now expect to see the market rally somewhere in the neighborhood of about 4% before even getting seriously tired. All short positions should be covered immediately.
The daily model is also bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% long at SPX 1516 stop or at SPX 1508 limit, whichever comes first. I am not going to recommend a stop – by now, you know how I hate them – but I will be following the market carefully, and if it has a big move in either direction from our entry point, I will update with an intraday message.
Personal note: With all nearby fires extinguished, I’m back in my office, albeit still coughing a bit from the sooty air. But compared with what could have been, I’ve got no complaints.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours – or definitely sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.