The SPX advanced 0.84 point yesterday to close at 2562.10. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17496.90 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2103.17 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.32 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.32 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated October 17, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains neutral. I expect the market to have a severe selloff sometime relatively soon – but not yet. As described in the October monthly TOT, a non-economic catalyst will most likely be the driver behind such a reversal in the market, and the timing of such a catalyst is not possible at the present time. The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs.
After the close yesterday, The Senate passed a budget resolution, a key step on the way to tax reform. It still needs to reconcile its budget proposal with a different one passed by the House. Once Congress approves a budget, it will start writing a tax bill that Republicans hope to pass this year. As a result, markets are strong in overnight trading.
In our sister publication, Turov on Overnight Possibilities, I wrote late yesterday afternoon, “short SPY if the SPX is closing down (as it is now) and stand aside if the SPX is closing up.” That’s because a bullish close was signaling the potential (but not the certainty) of a continued advance today. As a result, the daily model is slightly bullish today, but the big gap overnight makes any buy recommendation too dangerous. We will stand aside for the time being.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again before the start of Monday’s trading session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.