The SPX declined 6.63 points yesterday to close at 2132.55. TOT daily traders went 400% short on the opening and covered the position on the close with a modest loss, as the market gap opened sharply lower and then clawed its way (mostly) back the rest of the day.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17095.73 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1673.62 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.21 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of + 10.21 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated October 13, 2016.) The Intermediate Term model remains bearish. Yesterday’s claw back reduces the odds of an immediate major selloff.
The daily model is bullish today, according to my statistical work, but I’m not emotionally sanguine with that. Nevertheless, history has taught me to go with the data. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2134 stop. If the SPX declines to 2130 before advancing to 2134, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2132, and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.