This is Turov on Timing for Friday, November 7, 2008.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) declined 47.89 points yesterday to close at 904.88. TOT daily traders were
on the sidelines for the session.
TOT daily traders have been profitable in 16 of the past 19 weeks. TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in
21 of the past 22 weeks.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained
11187.38 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 445.95 points in the index itself over the same period.
That’s a ratio of 25.09 to 1.
Turov Investment Group Inc. managed accounts have outpaced the market by a wide margin, despite a very rough
October. For the current half of the year (July 1 to present), the following are the changes in the SPX and for all
“real money” Turov Investment Group Inc. direct-Rydex managed accounts:
Program A +5% (even though Program A never goes short or inverse)
Program B +15%
Program D +18%
These numbers are NOT annualized.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
These numbers show that Program A is outperforming the SPX by 34 percentage points, Program B by 44 percentage
points, and Program D by 47 percentage points. Adding additional funds to your account is permitted!!
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s
unlikely anything will change that for several more years.
The Intermediate Term Model is bullish, and the market has probably made a short term bottom.
After two sharp down-days, futures are modestly higher in overnight trading. However, the jobs report is scheduled
to come out an hour before the opening, and that will surely have an impact on the NYSE opening.
In a news-neutral environment (yeah, right!), the odds are exactly 50:50 as to whether the first hour will be up or
down. However, the potential magnitude of a decline is significantly greater than the potential magnitude of an
advance. Under normal circumstances, I’d go short. But these are not normal circumstances, and I want to minimize
However, the odds are very high that after the first 60-90 minutes have passed, the market will advance. The odds
are better if the first 60-90 minutes saw the market decline, but either way, the odds favor a decent rally from
mid-morning through the close. Therefore, at 10:45 a.m., TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at the
market. Use a 1% stop on 1 unit, a 1.5% stop on the second unit, and a 2% stop on the third unit. If still long at
3:55 p.m., I’ll have an intraday update within a minute or two thereafter.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s session
– or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2008 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for
personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this
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