The SPX declined 9.28 points yesterday to close at 2088.66. It was the eighth consecutive declining day, virtually unheard of in a bull market. TOT daily traders took a 1% loss (x3) on our 300% long position (incorrectly described yesterday as 200%).
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17028.49 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1629.73 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.45 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.45 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated October 30, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, regardless who wins the election next week.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 4, 2016.) The Intermediate Term model is bullish despite chart patterns that are positively scary.
Despite yesterday’s rout, the daily model is bullish today. However, considering the relentless selling, and the boost that Mr. Trump may get from the Clinton story late yesterday (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/02/fbi_sources_tell_fox_news_indictment_likely_in_clinton_foundation_case.html), I would want to play any long recommendation cautiously. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2090 stop or at the market at 9:35, whichever comes first. Once long, use a fairly tight stop at 5 points below your purchase level. If not stopped out, win, lose, or draw, sell the position on the close and go into the weekend flat.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in 72 hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.