This is Turov on Timing for Friday, November 30, 2012.
The SPX advanced 6.02 points yesterday to close at 1415.95. “Officially”, TOT daily traders had a breakeven on our first trade. Futures and options traders who waited for the 9:30 opening didn’t do as well as a breakeven; those who took a long position when TOT was distributed did better than breakeven. Then, late in the session, TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 1416 and have carried the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13576.09 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 957.02 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.19 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end in late Winter or early Spring 2013), expect another nasty crash – which may be an extended slide of as much as 18-24 months duration – to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish (despite my comments in a moment about today’s expected trading) and is likely to stay so for at least another week. Since it reversed from bearish to bullish on November 15 at 1355.49, the SPX has risen 60.46 points. Inasmuch as all eyes are on the “fiscal cliff”, here’s my take on it: I don’t know any more than anyone else how it will be resolved, but I see it somewhat similarly to Nixon’s 1974 resignation. “Everyone” expected the market to rally on the event then, and it did – for one minute on a big upside gap. I shorted every clients’ account to the maximum on the upside gap and took big profits six weeks later. I think if there is a credible deal on the cliff, we will see the same – a big gap to the upside, followed by “selling on the news.”
Turning to daily trading, on yesterday’s message I said, “my favorable vehicle for the first 75 minutes of trading today is the Russell 2000 Index (long)” and indeed, it was by far the best performer of the major averages for both the morning and the entire session, rising for the day 1.19%, compared to .43% in the SPX and .55% in the NASDAQ 100 (NDX). Today, there’s likely to be a battle between the Russell and the NDX for which will act worst of the major indices.
Also yesterday, I said, “Even though tomorrow (Friday) is the last day of the month, and even though the LDOM has been up five of the past six years’ LDOM’s in November, preliminarily Friday looks like a down day in the absence of positive news.”
In fact, it now looks like today has the potential to be VERY bearish, even though futures are slightly higher overnight. Furthermore, the less the market declines in the early going, the more it is likely to decline in the later going. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short. Double the position by going an additional 200% short at the market on the opening. Use no stop for the time being on the position
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again during today’s trading session, as necessary.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.