The SPX advanced 1.78 point Wednesday to close at 2204.72 after being in negative territory most of the session. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and missed nothing.
In the 21st Century, there have been two times when the SPX was up on all three sessions prior to the Thanksgiving holiday (such as is the case this week). In both cases, the SPX continued the advance into Friday. Those times were Thanksgiving week of 2006 when the SPX advanced 2.64 points on Friday, and Thanksgiving week of 2012 when the SPX advanced 18.12 points on Friday. For what it’s worth (not much; more in a moment), in both instances, the SPX declined on the following Monday. However, while statistics like this are of some interest, they are not of much statistical value since a “universe” of two events is a very small universe indeed, with little (or nil) predictive value.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16946.53 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1745.79 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.71 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.71 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 18, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish, although market leadership rotation will continue to be more pronounced than usual.
GOLD suffered severe technical damage on Wednesday from which recovery is not imminent. Our gold model is now ranked bearish.
The SPX-based daily model is slightly bullish today, but in the absence of significant news, a dull session is likely and taking a long position is not worth the risk. Enjoy the left-over turkey and start the weekend early.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in 72 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.