This is Turov on Timing for Friday, November 19, 2010.
Today is options expiration.
A very good day for the home team as the SPX advanced 18.1 points yesterday to close at 1196.69. TOT daily traders came into the session 300% long, went an additional 200% long on the opening, and took profits at SPX 1196. TOT daily traders then went 300% short on the close and have carried the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12029.29 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 737.76 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 16.31 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model has downticked from bullish to bearish. Repeating, the Intermediate Term Model is now bearish.
I expect to see the market move lower early on today, but there is a pretty decent chance that after such morning weakness that it will then move higher. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short. Use a protective buy stop on the position at SPX 1206 until 10:45. At 10:45, if still short and if the SPX is below 1204, lower the stop to the first round number 2 points above the 10:45 price. So, for example, if at 10:45, the SPX is at 1193.63, you would lower the stop to SPX 1196. After that, for each additional 2 point decline, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points. If still short as we approach the close, cover the short on the close and go into the weekend flat.
And with that, I wish you a great weekend. Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.