This is Turov on Timing for Friday, November 17, 2006.
The SPX advanced 3.19 points yesterday to close at 1399.76, again having difficulty exceeding 1400. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8887.84 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 940.83 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.45 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain neutral.
As was anticipated on yesterday’s hotline, the daily model is neutral today, and it’s almost certain to stay neutral in coming days until this market sells off a bit. It is obviously overextended. That does not mean that it cannot get more overextended – it certainly can – but rather that the risk of being long is extremely high. I do believe that the next big move will likely be to the upside, but I will not risk capital long until some of the upside excesses have been mitigated. As boring as it might be, continue to stand aside and await a better risk/reward opportunity. The key to long term profits in the market is not via making big killings but via not getting killed.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.