This is Turov on Timing for Friday, May 9, 2008.
The SPX advanced 5.11 points yesterday to close at 1397.68. After closing out our short position at a breakeven, TOT daily traders went 500% long at SPX 1392.57, and have held the position overnight and into today.
Over the past 44 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 29 times and underperformed 15 times. That’s a ratio of 1.93 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10431.35 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 938.75 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.11 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish. This coming week will likely be very painful for the bulls.
On yesterday’s hotline, I said, “I expect the risk component of the daily model to be very high tomorrow, and that will probably cause us to dramatically tighten our stops in the morning.” And indeed, although the directional component of the daily model is bullish, the risk component is in the stratosphere.
I expect the market to move lower in the morning and then move higher as the day progresses. Both early selling and later buying may be heavy.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 500% long. Consistent with my comment that we would likely “dramatically tighten our stops in the morning,” TOT daily traders are advised to raise the stop on the position to SPX 1395. If stopped out, I will have an intraday update within 15 minutes. If not stopped out, I will update again at 3:50 p.m., ten minutes before the close – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2008 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.