This is Turov on Timing for Friday, May 30, 2008.
A sharp drop in oil prices and a positive GDP revision led to a surprisingly strong day in the stock market Thursday. The SPX advanced 7.42 points yesterday to close at 1398.26. TOT daily traders took a profit on our carryover long position, but then a loss on a new short position, which was also closed out. We are currently flat.
Over the past 47 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 31 times and underperformed 16 times. That’s a ratio of 1.94 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10414.50 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 939.33 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.09 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several more years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish. The market is in an area where heavy selling is likely to come in, by the middle of this coming week at the latest.
A very simple message today: The daily model is solidly neutral, and we will stand aside and start the weekend early. Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours.
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