The SPX declined .44 points yesterday to close at 2090.10. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2092 and took a small loss at SPX 2090.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16739.81 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1631.17 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.26 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.26 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 27, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model went from bearish to bullish on May 19’s close at SPX 2040.04. Since then, the market has risen 50 points as discouraged bears have thrown in the towel. I see the market moving sideways to slightly lower in the short term, and the nature of that meandering will likely give a clue as to whether the next decent move will be up or down. The Intermediate Term Model is on the cusp of neutral to bearish, and although I am reluctant to be bearish at a seasonally bullish time (month change from May to June), the beginning of June is historically the weakest beginning of any month of the year. Therefore, I am categorizing the “cusp” as bearish, pending further developments. So, “officially” we are categorizing the Intermediate Term Model as having downticked from bullish to bearish.
The daily model is neutral today, with neither bulls nor bears having the clear-cut upper hand. We will stand aside today.
Enjoy the long weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Tuesday’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.