This is Turov on Timing for Friday, May 22, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) declined 15.14 points yesterday to close at 888.33. TOT daily traders went 300% long yesterday at SPX 887 and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11024.39 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 429.40 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 25.67 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that after a solid cyclical advance later this year, the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices next year. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, although after an expected interim decline, a resumption of the recent advance appears likely.
The daily model is bullish today, and I expect to see the market make another attempt to vault the SPX 900 mark. It might or might not succeed, but either way, next week looks rather dicey – and preliminarily dangerous.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long. Maintain your stop at SPX 877. If the SPX advances to 897, raise your stop to an 887 breakeven, and for each additional 5 point advance, raise your stop by an equivalent 5 points. If not stopped out, sell your position on the close and go into the three day weekend flat.
With solemn best wishes to the survivors of those who lost loved ones in service to our country, may the Memorial Day weekend be meaningful to all. Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours.
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