This is Turov on Timing for Friday, May 2, 2008.
Another superb day for the home team as the SPX advanced 23.75 points yesterday to close at 1409.34. TOT daily traders went 400% long at SPX 1387 at 9:47 a.m. Eastern time and have held the position overnight and into today.
Over the past 43 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 28 times and underperformed 15 times. That’s a ratio of 1.87 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10453.38 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 950.41 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.00 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Since turning bullish 2½ weeks ago at SPX 1328.32, the intermediate term model has soared by 6.1%, a probably unsustainable gain considering the light volume underlying the advance. Indeed, for this and because of much recent and rapid deterioration in numerous component indicators of the model, the intermediate term model has downticked from bullish to bearish. REPEATING, THE INTERMEDIATE TERM MODEL IS NOW BEARISH.
The payroll and unemployment reports are due out an hour before the market opens today. If they come out in line with expectations, then I’m at a bit of a loss to know what to expect during the balance of the day. On the other hand, if the numbers come out, and they’re a gap-opening-magnitude surprise – one way or the other – then expect the market to reverse the direction of the early morning gap later in the day. That would be especially true if the 10:00 March factory orders report is a surprise in the opposite direction from the jobs report.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 400% long. As previously stated, the SPX closed about 1409. The overnight futures are currently projecting an opening price of about 1413. Considering the downtick in the Intermediate Term Model (see above), I’m reluctant to be too aggressive today on the long side unless we have a weak morning AND it is accompanied by positive divergence on my intraday model. Maintain the position, but attempt to take profits at SPX 1417 limit or at SPX 1407 stop, whichever comes first. Regardless of market action, I will have an intraday update between 10:45 and 11:00 Eastern time.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2008 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.