This is Turov on Timing for Friday, May 16, 2008.
The SPX advanced 14.91 points yesterday to close at 1423.57. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1414 on Wednesday, took profits on that position yesterday at SPX 1412, then went 200% long at SPX 1412, and then took profits on the long position at SPX 1423.57. We then went 300% short on the close and have held that position overnight and into today.
Over the past 45 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 29 times and underperformed 16 times. That’s a ratio of 1.81 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10484.89 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 964.64 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.87 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish, although I’m getting a bit frustrated with the signal. However, frustration is an emotion, and emotions are usually costly in the market.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short. I expect a sharp decline in the market this morning. TOT daily traders are advised to go an additional 100% short at SPX 1421 stop and a final 100% short at SPX 1419 stop. If we take those two additional positions, it will bring us up to a maximum 500% short position. Use no stop on the position for the time being, but if the market moves against us badly, I’ll have an intraday update. In any event, I’ll have an intraday update between 10:45 and 11:00 a.m.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
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