This is Turov on Timing for Friday, March 28, 2008.
The SPX declined 15.37 points yesterday to close at 1325.76. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1343 and took a small loss when we closed the position out, early in the day, at SPX 1340.
Over the past 38 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 24 times and underperformed 14 times. That’s a ratio of 1.71 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10242.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 866.83 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.82 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bullish. However, I’m starting to get very concerned about whether Asian markets might get very soft soon, and whether that could hurt our market here.
The daily model is bullish today. However, futures are currently trading a dozen points above fair value, and I simply don’t have any way of knowing what percent of the day’s net gain that will represent. To recommend going long with futures so much above yesterday’s cash index close seems ill advised. So we will officially recognize the probable accuracy of the daily model’s forecast while at the same time standing aside. I will have an intraday update at 11:00 a.m.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 8 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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