The SPX declined 4.9 points yesterday to close at 2056.15. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2052 and carried our position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15283.21 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1597.22 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.57 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.57 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 4, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market is most likely to end in 2015 or 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future, at about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January 2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 19, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. I do not expect any additional significant upside from current levels until the market has a significant decline first.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long. We’re going to risk 17 points from here to make 17 points, and the odds are about 3:2 in our favor. So, use a protective sell stop on the position at SPX 2039.15. On the upside, take your profit at SPX 2073.15. If neither level is reached prior to the close, sell the position on the close and go into the weekend flat.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again prior to Monday’s opening.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.