The SPX advanced 0.31 points yesterday to close at 1989.57. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and missed a lot of volatility but nothing “net”.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16401.44 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1530.64 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.72 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.72 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 5, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 8, 2016.) After booking 110 points on the short side, as of February 16, the Intermediate Term Model had booked 65 points on the long side and had reversed to short. The Intermediate Term model remains bearish, recent gains in the major indices notwithstanding.
The daily model is bearish today, and after an early morning rally, the market is likely to soften. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1986 stop. If the SPX advances to 1990 before declining to 1986 (as I expect it will), raise the entry sell short stop to SPX 1988. And for each additional 2 point advance, raise the stop by an equivalent 2 points. If you haven’t gone short by 10:45 a.m., then consider the recommendation cancelled, and move to the sidelines for the balance of the session.
If you have gone short before 10:45, and if the SPX at that time is up on the day, then cover the short and move to the sidelines for the balance of the session.
If you have gone short before 10:45, and if the SPX at that time is down on the day, then lower the stop to the higher of SPX 1992 or two points above where you went short.
If still short as we approach the close, carry the short position over the weekend and into Monday.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.