The SPX advanced 1.89 points yesterday to close at 2364.87. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2370 on Tuesday and took our loss on yesterday’s close. For the week as a whole, so far, the SPX is down 18.25 points and TOT daily traders’ results are down 15.39 points. Nothing to be proud of, for sure, but at least better than the market.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17084.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1905.94 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.96 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.96 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 3, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. This signal was wrong for a surprising amount of time, but at the present time, it seems more likely than the more commonly held bullish perspective.
The daily model is bearish tomorrow, in a news-neutral environment, although the employment report is due to be released before today’s opening. As always, since we don’t know what that will be, we’re proceeding as if that were not at issue. Here are some miscellaneous data that do not fit into the daily model calculations but are nonetheless interesting: Since October 2002, when I began collecting huge amounts of data, during the second week of bull markets (such as today), there have been seven previous cases when the first four days of the week were down, down, down, up. On the subsequent Friday (such as today), the SPX declined six of those seven days, with the average change a whopping (for an average) decline of 14.3 points. The only up day was a long time ago (November 12, 2004), in a week which was net-up going into Friday, when the SPX advanced 10.69 points. If we add bear markets into the equation, there were four cases, all of which saw Fridays decline by an average of 13.58 points.
I expect to see the market open up strongly and then sell off sharply. TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% short at SPX 2382 stop or at SPX 2892 limit, or at the market at 9:45, whichever of those three events occurs first. After you go short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position. If still short as we approach the close, cover the short on the close. Preliminarily, the odds are that the daily model will be bullish on Monday.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again before the start of Monday’s session.
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