This is Turov on Timing for Friday, June 5, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 10.70 points yesterday to close at 942.46, reversing most of Wednesday’s loss. After logging a 12.5 point profit on 3 units Wednesday, TOT daily traders were stopped out of a 3 unit position yesterday with a 2.5 point loss yesterday. Then, at the close yesterday, we went 200% short and have held the new position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11050.40 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 483.53 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 22.85 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that after a solid cyclical advance later this year, the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices next year. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, although after an expected interim decline, a resumption of the recent advance appears likely.
Today could be quite interesting. On one hand, there’s news coming out this morning that the institutions perceive as important. That will undoubtedly impact the market. However, since the news we know ahead of time is called “olds”, I can only give advice assuming a news-neutral environment. In the long run, the favorable surprises balance the unfavorable ones.
In that ideal news-neutral environment, I expect to see the market sell off in the early going and then rally as the day advances. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short. Use no stop on that position for the first 75 minutes of trading. I recommend that TOT daily traders also go an additional 200% short at “SPX 939 stop, 934 limit”, good until 10:00 a.m. at which point, if not done, it should be cancelled. If you go short on the new recommendation, use a 12 point protective buy stop on it.
At 10:45 a.m., make the stop on the entire position 2 points above the 10:45 a.m. price AND go 300% long at that same stop price. I will update sometime between 10:50 and noon, as market conditions warrant.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again during morning trading hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2009 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.