This is Turov on Timing for Friday, June 30, 2006
The SPX advanced 26.87 points yesterday to close at 1272.87. TOT daily traders came into the session 400% long at an average price of SPX 1242.75 and took profits on the position at SPX 1255.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8904.96 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 813.94 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain bearish, although with a little less conviction than 24 hours ago!
On yesterday’s TOT, I said “a neutral reading is most likely” for the daily model on Friday, and that is exactly what it is. We’ll probably get a volatile session in the aftermath of the big move yesterday. Get an early start on the weekend as there’s no way to play this with rational risk.
Although I didn’t get any emails complaining that we got out at SPX 1255 and then the market rallied another 17 points (perhaps because we had a VERY solid profit, and perhaps because my readers are really sophisticated), I nevertheless want to address an important issue, and I’ll use an analogy to do so. Let’s say you’re playing Texas Hold’em poker, and you’re dealt a 3 and a 7. The right thing to do, of course, is to fold. If the next three cards (the flop) come up 4, 5, and 6, that would have been a straight. Nevertheless, folding was still unequivocally the right thing to do. At the time we took profits on our position, there was no way of knowing what the Fed was going to do. If their language had been negative instead of positive, the SPX could easily have sold off 17 points instead of rallying 17. Being upset at having missed that last rally makes no more sense than being upset at folding a 3-7 hand just because of the random events that followed.
Have a great weekend!
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.