The SPX advanced 9.94 points yesterday to close at 1613.20, most of it in the morning. TOT daily traders went 300% long on the opening and took profits at SPX 1617.95 at 10:45 a.m..
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13570.69 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1154.27 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.76 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 28) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 28) Intermediate Term Model comment: The “wave” of trading that brought the market to new highs in May is unlike any pattern that has appeared during the 21st Century. It was unlike the blowoffs in either 2000 or 2007 or, for that matter, like anything else. To quote Art Cashin on CNBC in May: “This is a very different kind of market than we’ve ever seen.” The selloff since the May 22nd intraday high of 1687.18 does not negate those comments, but it is possible that the high of this bull market has already been seen. However, a rally into the mid 1600’s would not surprise me, although the current rally will likely see some profit taking before (and if) such a rally attempt begins.
Today is the last day of the month. Historically LDOM has been quite strong, but in the past decade, that has been true only on certain occasions. A few weeks ago, I spent about 50 hours studying LDOM events, trying to evaluate probabilities based on distinct patterns preceding the LDOM. It would have bored many, but I found it fascinating (perhaps because my research ended up being rather productive). Remembering that news will always trump ANY model and ANY set of probabilities, the probability is that today will see the market advance MODESTLY. A big advance is unlikely – as is a decline. The odds are about 7-3 that the market will advance, and within that 70% advance probability, the odds are about 85:15 that it will be less than 1%. You want certainty? Just death and taxes – nothing good is a certainty.
On yesterday’s message, I said, “I expect to see a more modest advance than we have seen the past two days,” and we saw that the 9.94 point gain in the SPX was less than in either of the prior two days. Expect even less today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1614 stop or at the market at 9:45 a.m. If and when you go long, use a 3/4% protective sell stop on the position, which I expect to tighten if our long position starts to work out profitably.
Misc. note: I believe the selling in gold is just about over, and I also believe that the gold mining stocks will outperform bullion in the very short term. By my measures, exhaustion levels in the mining stocks have been reached, and rallies almost always occur from such levels.