The SPX advanced 18.26 points yesterday to close at 2430.06. TOT daily traders did somewhat better than that, going 300% long on the opening at SPX 2415.65 and taking a cumulative 28.05 point profit by selling at SPX 2425 late in the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17249.08 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1971.13 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.75 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.75 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst, I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.
Overnight S&P futures are up by about 6 points but we have a conundrum. The daily model is bearish. The Index Models are mixed with the model for Nasdaq 100 clearly bearish and the model for the SPX neutral. However, I have special research for the Nasdaq for the last two and first two days of the month (today being the second trading day of June), and in that model, the NDX is very bullish! I spent two hours trying to reconcile the models, and I cannot do it. Under the circumstances, my recommendation, reluctantly, is to stand aside since I doubt the SPX will move in the opposite direction from the NDX.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in about 24 hours.
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