This is Turov on Timing for Friday, June 19, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 7.66 point yesterday to close at 918.37. TOT daily traders came into yesterday’s session 400% long and took profits at SPX 917.21 at 10:00 a.m. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11106.04 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 459.44 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 24.17 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that after a solid cyclical advance later this year, the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices next year. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, although I think we should see some improvement there by Independence Day.
June 2008’s option expiration Friday was marred by a huge decline. Considering the unusual seasonal significance of June compared with most other months, that single session decline cannot be ignored. I want to stand aside for the time being inasmuch as risk during the first hour is massive. However, IF the NASDAQ 100 Index ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^NDX ) is in negative territory at 10:45, then the odds are about 7:3 that that Index will close yet lower on the day – and it’s unlikely that the SPX wouldn’t follow suit. Therefore, if NDX is down at 10:45, TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at the market. If the NDX is up at 10:45, stand aside and start the weekend early. If you go short, use a 12 point protective buy stop on the position.
If still short as we approach the close, I’ll have an intraday update then. Otherwise the next update will be six hours before the start of Monday’s session.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again as per the preceding paragraph – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2009 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.