After opening lower, the SPX ended the day advancing by 6.49 points yesterday to close at 2077.99. TOT daily traders went 400% long at SPX 2080 on Tuesday, carried the position overnight twice and into yesterday and were stopped out during the early selling at SPX 2059.20. I have written often why I do not like stops, but why I use them in TOT (subscribers want them). However, I do not use stops in managed accounts, and most managed accounts were long the Nasdaq 100 2x fund where we had a .66% profit on the day.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16698.63 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1619.06 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.31 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.31 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 17, 2016.) I previously said, “My perspective is that the SPX will likely make a run for 2100 again, probably [Thursday]… (but) then the buy signal will likely abort, and the risk of another attempt to move lower will occur.” That is the case, and the Intermediate Term Model has downticked from bullish to bearish.
The daily model is bearish today, but the market could easily continue to rally in the early going. Risk on either side of the market is high. We are on the sidelines, and I recommend that we stay there.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again before the start of Monday’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.