The SPX declined 3.64 points yesterday to close at 2115.48. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2112 and took profits on the close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16778.33 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1656.55 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.13 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.13 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 2, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish but without a lot of conviction. If it doesn’t break by mid-June, the odds are that it won’t.
The daily model is modestly bearish today. While the morning should see some damage to the secondary stocks, most of the blue chips’ weakness will come later in the day. But even then, damage will likely be limited, in the absence of significant negative news. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2115 stop. If we go short (i.e., if the SPX declines to 2115), we’re going to risk 10 cumulative SPX points (i.e., 5 points times 2 units) to make 10 cumulative SPX points, and with an estimate of about a 3:2 edge of that 5 point move (times 2 units) coming to the downside rather than to the upside. So, if you short at SPX 2115, cover the short at SPX 2110 limit or at SPX 2120 stop, whichever comes first. If 2115 is never reached, stand aside, and if it is reached and then neither 2110 nor 2120 is reached, cover the short on the close, and go into the weekend flat.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.