The SPX advanced 5.01 points yesterday to close at 1100.43. Most of the gain took place within minutes of the opening on favorable news, and after that, the market essentially moved sideways. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8330.31 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 641.51 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains bearish, and the short term model remains ever so slightly bullish. A move above 1106 would likely strengthen the intensity of the short term model’s bullishness.
The daily model would be bearish today were it not for the month end seasonality factor. Seasonality is not powerful enough an influence at present to move the model bullish, but it is enough to prevent it from being bearish.
News will impact the early going as GDP numbers get announced at 8:30, and the July Michigan sentiment and Chicago PMI numbers are released at 10 o’clock. In an extraordinarily news sensitive market, any surprises from these numbers will likely be the day’s determining force.
If the SPX is down today, the odds are very high that the daily model will be bearish on Monday.
For the third Friday in a row, standing aside is the best stance to take. Both uncertainty and risk are very high, and avoiding the fray is the best alternative.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2004 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.