The SPX declined 2.41 points yesterday to close at 2475.42. TOT daily traders came into the session 200% long and were stopped out at SPX 2470 on the way from the SPX cratering from 2474 down to 2460 before clawing its way back to a minor loss on the day.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17327.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2016.49 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.59 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.59 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.) Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now. I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.
The daily model is neutral today, but most of the Index models are bearish. Even though the penultimate day of the month has a favorable seasonal bias, today could be nasty. The risk is too high to go long, and seasonality makes me disinclined to go short. We will stand aside, mirroring the position of all TIG managed accounts which are safely ensconced in a money market fund. While not a forecast, since I don’t have corroborating data, I feel we could see all of July’s gains evaporate during the last two trading days of the month, today and Monday.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again before the start of Monday’s trading session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.