The SPX advanced 0.97 point yesterday to close at 1987.98. TOT daily traders were 200% short for the session and have carried the position overnight and into
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 14027.70 cumulative SPX points, compared
to a gain of 1529.05 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.17 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model
fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of 9.17 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline. On a day
the market advances it will therefore almost always decline, and on a day the market declines it will almost always advance.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since
January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the
primary bear market is over, some years in the future (best guess: 2017 or 2018), at or below about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January
2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 23, 2014.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. Even as the market makes nominal new highs, serious
internal market divergences lend evidence to the probability that the bulls will soon be steers (although goring some ranchers in protest in the interim).
Although not part consideration of what goes into the daily model, I thought you might be interested in the following. During the 21st Century, there have
been only two other occasions, during the month of July, where the SPX was down on Monday and then up on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, as has been the
case this week. The (albeit, limited) history on Friday has not been kind. Here are the details:
Dates Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
July 25-29, 2005 -4.65 2.13 5.63 6.93 -9.54
July 16-20, 2012 -3.14 10.03 9.11 3.73 -13.85
July 21-25, 2014 -4.59 9.90 3.48 0.97 ?
Unrelated to the preceding, the daily model is rather bearish today. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short. Go an additional 200% short at
the market. Use a protective buy stop on half of the position at SPX 1996.77 and on the other half 1% above today’s short price.
If not stopped out, and if the SPX is closing below 1998, cover the short position (200% or 400%, as may be the case) on the close. If not stopped out of
the new position, and if the SPX is closing above 1998, carry the new position over the weekend and into Monday.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s trading session – or
sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2014 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and
advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be
reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be
directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but
rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and
may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at
a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern.
Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.