The SPX declined 7.85 points yesterday to close at 2165.17. TOT daily traders went 200% short on Tuesday and have carried the position overnight thrice and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16752.09 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1706.24 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.82 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.82 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated last Friday.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. While our most recent bearish call was clearly premature, and I do not expect a complete reversal of the market’s gain since this signal was generated, I do expect a partial reversal of the advance, leading to a buy signal from a lower price than the current price. Last week, 92% of the entire week’s gain took place on overnight gaps. Only 8 net points happened during the day. That indicates either that most of last week’s thrust came from overseas buying (indicating a lack of confidence in Asian and/or European markets) or because of overnight news (and news is rarely discounted twice). Either way, it seems like a swan song rally.
On yesterday’s message, I said, “There is a very high probability that whatever the market’s direction on Thursday will be the same direction for the daily model on Friday,” and that is the case. The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short. Maintain the position and the 1% stop (from Tuesday’s sale price) on the position. That’s SPX 2185.43 stop. If not stopped out, I’ll update later today.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again later today if we have not been stopped out of our short position.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.