The SPX declined 0.38 point yesterday to close at 2473.83 after being above zero for most of the session. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and missed absolutely nothing.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17331.38 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2014.90 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.60 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.60 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.) Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now. I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.
The daily model is slightly bearish today, but I expect to see the Technology Sector buck the trend. In the absence of news, I don’t see much to gain by going short the SPX (TOT is an SPX-based service), and we will not take an SPX position.
Misc. note: The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday, as follows: “Former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort is being investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller for possible money laundering as part of his investigation into Russian election-meddling, the Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday. The Journal reported both the Senate and House intelligence committees are also investigating Manafort for money laundering. Manafort worked for years as a political consultant for a pro-Russia party in Ukraine, and led Donald Trump’s presidential campaign for about three months last year. In a separate report Wednesday, the New York Times reported Manafort was as much as $17 million in debt to pro-Russia interests before joining Trump’s campaign. The Journal said the New York attorney general and Manhattan district attorney are also looking into Manafort’s real estate transactions for potential money laundering and fraud. Manafort was asked Wednesday to publicly testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee next week to discuss a June 2016 meeting he attended between top Trump advisers and a Russian lawyer who had promised them damaging information on Hillary Clinton.” And MarketWatch reported, “President Donald Trump and his legal team are discussing his authority to grant pardons and potential ways to undermine special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian election meddling, according to a Washington Post report late Thursday. The Post said Trump has asked about his power to pardon aides, family members and even himself. A president has never tried to pardon himself, and the legal implications of that could be explosive. The Post also reported Trump’s legal team is trying to keep Mueller’s probe from expanding to include the president’s finances, and are collecting potential alleged conflicts of interest they see coming from his office — which could potentially be used to remove Mueller from his position.” Nasty stuff – unclear if the market will care.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again before the start of Monday’s trading session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.