The SPX advanced 4.58 points yesterday to close at 2447.83. TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2441.49 and have carried the position overnight twice and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17340.88 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1988.90 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.72 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.72 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst, I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it. The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end. But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea. News – and the timing of news – does matter.
I expect to see the market continue yesterday’s strength into early trading today, then lose steam, and then move higher again. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short. Maintain the protective buy stop on the position at SPX 2453. If the SPX declines to 2444, lower the buy stop to SPX 2446, and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. If and when you cover the short, go 200% long at the same time. If and when you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.