The SPX advanced 28.09 points yesterday to close at 2098.86. After two days of solid gains, TOT daily traders were on the wrong side with a 300% short position that suffered a 1% loss on each unit.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16721.63 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1639.93 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.20 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.20 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated today.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. After another advance today, the market is likely to have some rough sledding in July.
Only once before (since the end of World War II) has the S&P 500 ever closed a month with three consecutive 1+% gains following a significant low during the preceding quarter. That was May 29, 1970. The next trading day was the beginning of June 1970, and the gain continued into the new month with an advance that day of 1.7%. But from there it was downhill, with the SPX losing almost 5% during the following month. I don’t make much of a single case, but it does have some anecdotal value.
Despite the information in the previous paragraph, I’m not sanguine about going long today. It “feels” like the market is overbought and ready for a decline, but my indicators are bullish. Historically, my indicators work better than my “feelings.”
The daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at the market at 9:40 a.m. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you later in today’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.