This is Turov on Timing for Friday, January 22, 2010.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) declined 21.56 points yesterday to close at 1116.48. TOT daily traders were long in the morning (losing 20 cumulative points) and short in the afternoon (gaining 18.26 cumulative points). We have carried a 200% short position overnight and into today.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that the bear market will resume in earnest later this year, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices in 2011 or 2012. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. We probably have entered a topping phase which could easily take a month or more to complete.
The daily model is modestly bearish today, with the market probably being up a bit in the morning and then giving back those gains and then some as the day progresses. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short. Lower your stop to SPX 1118.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again between 10:45 and 11 a.m. –or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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