The SPX declined 8.2 points yesterday to close at 2263.69. TOT daily traders went 200% long at 2269.14 on Wednesday and were stopped out at SPX 2260 yesterday.
At noon Eastern time (9:00 a.m. Pacific time), the most enigmatic President-to-be in American history (with the possible exception of Milliard Fillmore) will become President. He will be the first president in American history with no experience in either the military or government, and if the past year is any clue, he is anything but diplomatic. He is ruthless to anyone who disagrees with him, a strange characteristic for someone who considers himself a great negotiator. Personally, I like some of his proposals and hate others. Like all previous recent presidents, he will make an inaugural speech. It will be an interesting one to listen to, to say the least. I don’t know what to make of his speech, since his speech could be conciliatory, confrontational, either, or both! If my stock market models were either strongly bullish or bearish, I might go out on a limb in their favor, but they are fairly neutral. That reinforces my belief that the new president’s speech will have a serious impact on the market. I don’t bet against pot odds to draw to an inside straight, and I don’t gamble on the extreme unknown of tomorrow morning. I recommend standing aside and awaiting a less uncertain trading opportunity.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17070.61 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1812.96 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.42 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.42 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated January 20, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. I do not see President Trump inspiring further market gains during the next week or so.
For reasons explained in the third paragraph of today’s message, I recommend standing aside today.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again before the opening of Monday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.