This is Turov on Timing for Friday, February 8, 2008.
The SPX advanced 10.46 points yesterday to close at 1336.91, reversing Wednesday’s 10.19 point decline. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 20 of the past 31 weeks.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10001.59 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 877.98 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.39 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bullish. While the market is certainly riskier than usual, the probably is that the worst of this month’s selling is over.
Since I began Turov on Timing almost 15 years ago, the SPX has gained 877.98 points. Almost half of those points – 409.52 – have been gained on Wednesdays. Only a measly 4.57 cumulative points have been gained on Fridays! It’s clearly been the weakest day of the week over the past decade and a half! So, in a primary bear market – which is what I believe we are in – the odds do not favor going long on a Friday. And indeed, the directional component of the daily model is bearish today. However, the risk component is high enough to throw the overall model into neutral, and so we will reluctantly stand aside.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours.
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