The SPX declined 3.1 points yesterday to close at 2110.76. TOT daily traders went 400% long at SPX 2108 and took profits on the close at 2110.76. We also went 200% short on the close and have held that position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15167.16 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1651.83 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.18 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.18 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 4, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market is most likely to end in 2015 or 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future, at about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January 2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 27, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. Interestingly enough, historically, when the SPX has broken out to a new high after an extended period of mainly sideways movement, the breakout has usually been a fake-out, and the market has generally not moved significantly higher for a considerable period of time. This is often a time when the knee-jerk public buys, allowing professionals to unload high priced stocks. I doubt it will be different this time. The recent strength in all major market indices is more likely a sign of exhaustion, rather than of bullish confirmation. A major upside move this Winter is highly unlikely.
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders went 200% short on the close and have carried the short position overnight and into today. For the time being, use no stop on the position. Furthermore, if the SPX is up on the day at 10:45 a.m., double the position by going an additional 200% at the market at that time. Once again, use no stop on that new position, if taken.
Turov on Overnight Possibilities Footnote and Unabashed Sales Pitch: While the SPX was down 0.14% yesterday, the Nasdaq 100 was UP .50%. On Wednesday’s 3:45 message, I advised all TOP subscribers to “Buy QQQ (the Nasdaq 100 ETF) on Wednesday’s close. Yes, TOP is expensive. But existing subscribers think it’s worth it (judging by the 90% renewal rate from 2014 to 2015). (P.S. On Thursday’s TOP 3:45 message, I advised all TOP subscribers to “Sell short QQQ” on the close. Let’s see what happens….)
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later during today’s trading
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.