The SPX declined 8.99 points yesterday to close at 1917.83. TOT daily traders came into the session 100% short and went an additional 200% short at SPX 1923. We then took profits on the entire position on the close and came into today flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16330.09 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1458.90 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.19 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +11.19 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 5, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 18, 2016.) After booking 110 points on the short side, as of February 16, the Intermediate Term Model had booked 65 points on the long side and had reversed to short. The Intermediate Term model remains bearish.
The daily model is slightly bullish today, but my Index models would be bearish in the afternoon if the market acts poorly in the morning, but bullish in the afternoon if the market acts well in the morning. TOT daily traders are advised to go 100% long at SPX 1919 stop. If you go long, use an SPX 1909 sell stop on the position until 10:45 a.m.
At 10:45. if the SPX is down on the day, and we have not yet purchased that 100% long position by that time, cancel the entry buy stop and sit out the balance of the session.
At 10:45. if the SPX is down on the day, and we have purchased that 100% long position, and we have not been stopped out, sell the 100% long position at the market at that time, and sit out the balance of the session.
At 10:45. if the SPX is up on the day, and we have purchased that 100% long position, and we have not been stopped out, go an additional 200% long at the market at that time and use a 1% sell stop on the new position while keeping the original stop on the original position.
At 10:45. if the SPX is up on the day, and we had purchased that 100% long position, but we have been stopped out, go 300% long at the market at that time, and use a 1% sell stop on the entire position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.