The SPX advanced 4.84 points yesterday to close at 2246.19. It was the first time this Century that a non-pre-Christmas week in December ever began with four advancing sessions.
The market “feels” like the advance will never end. Funny thing though: The advances always do end – and often badly.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16937.99 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1787.26 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.48 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.48 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated December 9, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish, although that forecast has clearly been wrong this week. However, the odds favor the market being lower than it currently is as we approach Christmas.
The daily model is slightly bullish tomorrow, although it is in uncharted territory. I’m loath to go long. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 400% short. Lower the stop substantially to SPX 2251. If the SPX declines to 2240, lower the stop again to SPX 2245, and for each additional 5 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 5 points.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.