The SPX declined 29.89 points yesterday to close at 2049.62. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. However, on yesterday’s message, I said, “If the San Bernardino attack is ruled an attack by ISIS sympathizers – as I believe is quite possible – I think the market will respond negatively, as this would indicate a national vulnerability that heretofore has not been factored into market risk.” I continue to believe that statement is true.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15835.51 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1590.69 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.96 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.96 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 5, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated December 4, 2015.) On yesterday’s hotline I said that the Intermediate Term Model’s bullish rating was “tenuous, and it could turn down any day now.” That day has arrived: The Intermediate Term Model has downticked from bullish to bearish.
On Wednesday afternoon’s Turov on Overnight Possibilities, I said, “Precious Metals could rally and a hedge of long Precious Metals and short QQQ is the best percentage play,” and that was definitely the best play yesterday as the Precious Metals ETF was up about 2% and the QQQ was down almost as much. On yesterday afternoon’s Turov on Overnight Possibilities, I said, “In the absence of unexpected news, I expect that trade to continue to work Friday (but not as strongly) but IMHO, shorting IWM (the Russell 2000 ETF) is a better use of capital.” Note: A full year 2016 subscription to Turov on Overnight Possibilities is $1997 for non-TOT subscribers, and $997 for TOT subscribers, such as yourself. Furthermore, any new subscriber this month will receive the balance of December gratis. To subscribe, please send a check to Turov Investment Group Inc.; PO Box 1250; La Jolla, CA 92129 or send $997 to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com through www.paypal.com. If you pay by check, please email that you have done so, so that I can begin your subscription immediately.
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to note the SPX price at 9:40 a.m. Then, attempt to go 200% short on a stop at 2 points below the next lower round number. For example, if the SPX at 9:40 is at 2056.50, that would become a recommendation to go short at SPX 2054 stop. If the SPX then rises to 4 points above the stop level before the stop is hit, raise the entry sell short price by 2 points, and then by an additional 2 points for each further 2 point advance. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.